Under our most recent base case view, supply of materials like lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite and manganese appears largely adequate over a 10-year forecast horizon, but most markets move quickly in deficit beyond 2030 as EV sales ‘take off’. Governments are not just offering incentives through subsidies and tax breaks, but in some cases are bringing in bans and penalties for combustion engine vehicles.Įlectrification of transport, plus increased deployment of energy storage systems, requires a huge ask in terms of the ramp-up in supply of battery raw materials. And the decarbonisation of transportation through electrification remains one of the key routes to this. From the EU’s own recovery plan, that builds on last year’s Green Deal, to Presidential Candidate Joe Biden’s US$2 trillion climate plan for the US, there appears growing consensus to build a better world. ![]() Yet in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, an increasing number of plans being brought forward to extricate countries from the associated economic malaise have a distinctly ‘green tinge’ to them. But our base case view is not so much a revolution as a steady climb in adoption, in line with successful reductions in battery costs, the rollout of charging infrastructure, the proliferation of new models and changes in consumer attitudes. ![]() We’ve probably even used it ourselves in some reports. The phrase ‘EV revolution’ gets used a lot.
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